“Blink: thinking without thinking”, describes how experts make instantaneous decisions using appropriate contextual information which may be consciously or unconsciously realized .
An ancient greek statue, a Kouros was offered to a New York Museum. Extensive scientific analysis concluded that this Kouros was genuine. But the expert reaction was that this statue was somehow wrong. It was purchased anyway.Later at a confernence in Greece, experts began to cataglog the subtle deficiencies in the statue. Further investigations revealed the insidious fabrication in the authenticating letters. .
Experts use “thin-slicing” - taking the appropriate contextual clues to predict outcome - one researcher can predict with 90% accuracy which couples will stay together with a small video clip of the conversation (about money, or a pet, or something with a bit of controversy) by examining microexpressions, and in particular to the expression of contempt.
